10 points for guessing 习近平

Congratulations! You've just effectively used google to discover that the above characters are indeed a name: Xi JinPing. Unfortunately, I wasn't just looking for a word-for-word translation - this isn't an exam. What I was looking for was the answer to this question: what does 习近平 mean? Ok kids, we're about to get technical.

My new found love of Chinese politics - brought on by my new found love of my Chinese politics professor - has turned me into something of a political commentator. Election time is gearing up in the US in one of the most expensive, nail-biting, potentially disappointing campaigns of our generation. But, despite the lack of voting taking place in the Chinese system, the transition of power taking place in the next few weeks could be just as important as what's going on in America.

The Economist refer to Xi as the man who must change China. Alright guys, lets not get too carried away. Apart from the end of currency manipulation and  actually listening to the environmental concerns of the middle classes, there's really not that much that can (or would) be changed when Xi comes to power as China's next President. Yes, when. These things are decided months, even years, in advance, and the top members of China's decision making powerhouse, the Politburo (standing committee), are often scouted early on in their careers and trained up through a variety of 'relevant' positions.

Sophie "I love how they have a Politburo"
Me "Yeah...It's a Communist Party"
Sophie "I know but...it just feels a bit silly!"

They may just seem like a group of nondescript, would-be-about-to-retire-in-any-other-country men, but these are the people that hold all the power in China - they make the most important decisions and have the final say on pretty much everything. Just so you're aware, the current leader of the Communist party is Hu Jintao and his Premier is Wen Jiabo. They've both had experience in different government departments, and have spent time in the 'regions' (Hu did a stint in Tibet), which is essential for any aspiring leader. It may seem like a fairly smooth road to the top once you've been marked out for stardom, but, unsurprisingly, the way can be fraught with pitfalls. 

You may have heard of the Bo Xilai scandal that took place this year, resulting in the party secretary for Chongqing - originally marked out for a place on the Politburo - being expelled from the party. The new favourite? Wang Yang, party secretary of Guangdong. This may all be going over your head right now, but I am going somewhere with this. Chonqing and Guangdong have competing models of development - often taking a more liberal, forward-thinking approach to reform, on several occasions jumping the gun on policies yet to be decided by Beijing (central gov). No doubt they were both aiming for a top position, but one can only have so many mavericks running the country, and needless to say that Wang and Bo weren't the best of friends. Many believe that this 'scandal' and others were cooked up by Bo's opposition in Beijing to get rid of him in time for the once in a decade change over. Or it could just be a happy coincidence; one that Wang Yang happens to benefit greatly from. In the Chinese system, however, I doubt there are anything as convenient as coincidences.

So why all the fuss? Like I said, these guys are the ones in control. Some speculators think that with a younger, more liberal set of leaders in government China may be on the way to a decent human rights regime (by decent, I mean western), a loosening of party control, and who knows, maybe even democracy. I can say, with some confidence, that China is probably not on the way to broadening the political rights of its citizens (let alone introducing democracy), and will continue to fervently clamp down of the 90,000+ 'incidents' that occur each year. Xi is not known for being a liberal, but he will have to prepare for the effects of a slow-down in growth, with could potentially turn into an economic downturn during his reign. This in turn would increase social unrest, threatening the party's legitimacy and absolute power, arguably already on the decline.

But is the party really under threat? Will the party really change just because its leaders do? That remains to be seen, but it is important to bear in mind that the party doesn't like not being in control: they are the only party, they are the state, they provide welfare and security, control religion, the media and spend billions on ensuring that no one plays up on the internet. They're doing a pretty good job of being in control so far, and this situation is unlikely to change with the introduction of 7 men (and possibly 1 woman) in a body of 83 million cadres, no matter how 'top' they are. The party way of life is ingrained, and even if they all start clamouring for liberalisation, the party's top dogs would need some serious guanxi prowess (along without about 25 years) to push through any truly radical reform.

Ok, so maybe not as much of an impact on us as the US elections may have, but a basic understanding of what's going on with the leadership in China may be of some use when China rules the world...